Strengthen Real Estate Market Recovery Momentum
During this year's National Day holiday, the real estate markets in many cities were bustling. There was a noticeable increase in the number of people visiting sales offices to view properties, and the volume of signed second-hand housing deals also rose. This indicates that homebuyers' expectations are changing, and the real estate market is showing initial signs of stabilization.
The overall positive changes in the real estate market during the National Day holiday were first reflected in a significant increase in the number of property viewings and visits, which are indicators of the willingness to buy. Since the holiday began, the majority of projects participating in promotions have seen a year-on-year increase in visits of over 50%. From October 1st to noon on October 3rd, the number of new housing viewings in Beijing increased by 92.5% compared to the same period last year, with the number of subscriptions increasing by two times; the number of second-hand housing viewings increased by 104.1% compared to the same period last year. A new development in Shanghai saw over 600 groups of homebuyers visiting for inquiries in a single morning. In Guangzhou, some properties reported daily visits exceeding 150 groups, a 200% increase from usual, with some projects seeing a nearly 400% increase in visits. Preliminary statistics from Hunan Province show a 106% month-on-month increase in new housing viewings and an 80% increase in second-hand housing viewings. In Sichuan Province, sampled survey projects reported a 70% average increase in visits compared to before the holiday, and a 140% average increase in conversion rates.
The positive changes are also evident in the varying degrees of sales growth in many locations, with market confidence recovering. From September 30th to October 4th, Guizhou Province sold 137,500 square meters (1,187 units) of commercial housing, a 44.3% year-on-year increase; the transaction amount was 754 million yuan, a 54.2% year-on-year increase. In Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, 156 units were sold, a 254% year-on-year increase. On the first day of the National Day holiday, the online contract area for new commercial housing in Shandong Province was 93,800 square meters, a 46.8% year-on-year increase. With the market becoming more active, some real estate projects in cities have canceled promotional discounts. Several projects in Beijing have already canceled or announced the cancellation of a 2% discount after the National Day holiday. In cities like Chengdu and Kunming, the prices of several projects have been increased by 2% to 3%. This reflects, to some extent, the recovery of demand and the confidence of real estate companies in the market's stabilization.
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The positive changes in the real estate market during the National Day holiday are primarily due to the central government's deployment regarding the real estate market and the密集出台 of policies and measures by various localities to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. On September 26th, the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, sending a strong signal to promote its stable and healthy development.
The four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen adjusted housing purchase restrictions and other policy measures before October 1st. Recently, more than 10 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government), including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hubei, and Yunnan, have introduced provincial-level policies to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. More than 50 cities, including Wuhan, Nanchang, Hefei, and Guangyuan, have introduced city-level real estate market optimization policies. The main focus of local optimization policies is to cancel or reduce restrictive measures, provide tax incentives, housing vouchers, home purchase subsidies, trade-ins, renovation subsidies, and use of housing provident funds to support home purchases. Adjustments to credit policies help reduce the cost of home purchases for residents. Commercial personal housing loans no longer distinguish between first and second homes, with the minimum down payment ratio unified at not less than 15%. In some cities, the VAT exemption period has been shortened, and with the reduction of mortgage interest rates, the cost of home purchases has decreased, which helps to stimulate enthusiasm for housing consumption.
The market's recovery is also due to the joint efforts of industry associations and enterprises during the National Day holiday to carry out activities such as the exhibition and sale of commercial housing. On September 29th, the China Real Estate Association issued an initiative to the entire industry to carry out the "Hundred Cities and Thousand Enterprises Commercial Housing Promotion Activity," mobilizing more than 100 cities, thousands of real estate companies, and brokerage agencies to concentrate efforts in October to carry out various forms of commercial housing promotion activities, stimulating consumer enthusiasm and boosting home purchase confidence. Local industry associations and enterprises have responded enthusiastically, widely carrying out various forms of promotional activities. Many real estate companies, including China Overseas, China Resources, Poly, Longfor, and Vanke, actively jointly issued the "Hundred Cities and Thousand Enterprises Commercial Housing Promotion Activity" Commitment Initiative, committing not to arbitrarily raise prices to disrupt the market, not to excessively lower prices for vicious competition, and to ensure the delivery of houses as agreed. China State Construction Engineering Corporation started at the end of September to hold a three-month architectural technology exhibition in Beijing, focusing on "good houses."
Localities have also taken active measures to create favorable conditions for the real estate market to become active and stable. As of October 4th, more than 130 cities in more than 20 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) have organized various forms of online and offline commercial housing promotion and simultaneous publicity, policy interpretation, and other activities, such as the Golden Autumn Promotion Season, Housing (Real Estate) Expo, Cloud Exhibition Hall, and live housing viewing. Provinces such as Hubei and Guangxi have organized province-wide Golden Autumn home purchase promotion seasons, and cities such as Harbin, Kunming, Datong, Shaoxing, and Shantou have organized various forms of promotional activities, including real estate company carnivals, housing exhibitions, and promotion meetings. Under the organization of various localities, nearly 2,000 projects (properties) from more than 1,000 real estate companies participated in local promotions. Many sales offices did not take a holiday or close during the "October 1st" Golden Week, carrying out various marketing activities such as discounts, coupons, gift home purchase rights (parking spaces, property fees, water and electricity fees, etc.), gold giveaways, mobile phone giveaways, gold egg smashing, and time-limited discounts. Some developers in third- and fourth-tier cities such as Shangrao and Ji'an in Jiangxi, and Hengyang in Hunan, have launched home purchase promotion activities for returning residents, providing transportation subsidies and home purchase discounts for returning residents.
October is a traditional sales peak season for the real estate market. After the National Day holiday, it is expected that some residents who went out for tourism will return, and some cities, especially first-tier cities that have just adjusted and optimized real estate policies, will have a process of releasing home purchase demand. The continuous role of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, the improvement of the financial situation of real estate projects, and the continuous advancement of housing delivery work in various places will greatly restore residents' confidence in purchasing new commercial residential properties. Driven by the "buy high, not low" mentality, it is expected that some residents with home purchase needs who have been watching the market will choose to buy homes. With the further adjustment and optimization of real estate-related policies and their continuous implementation and effectiveness, the momentum of the real estate market's stabilization is expected to be further consolidated.
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